Kelani River Basin Flood Impact Analysis – November 2025
Comprehensive Assessment of Flood Hazards, Exposure, and Vulnerability
Cyclonic Storm Ditwah made landfall on Sri Lanka's eastern coast on 28 November 2025, leaving a major humanitarian crisis in its wake.
Sri Lanka experienced severe flooding due to the impact of Cyclone Ditwa, a strong tropical weather system that caused intense and prolonged rainfall over the western and south-western parts of the country.
One of the most affected regions was the Kelani River Basin, which is highly vulnerable to floods due to its low-lying terrain, dense population, and urban development.
The Kelani River Basin covers approximately 2,292 square kilometers, ranking as the seventh-largest river basin in Sri Lanka, with 20 sub-watersheds and an average annual discharge of 3,560 million cubic meters.
The basin primarily traverses four main districts Nuwara Eliya, Kegalle, Colombo, and Gampaha with smaller sections extending into Ratnapura and Kalutara districts , all within the Central, Sabaragamuwa, and Western Provinces.
The river features a steep upper gradient that flattens abruptly at Hanwella, 35 km upstream from the sea, creating fast flows and flood risks downstream; major tributaries include Maskeliya Oya, Gurugoda Oya, Wak Oya, Ritigaha Oya, and Seethawaka Ganga.
During late November to early December 2025, the Kelani River Basin experienced a major flood event triggered by Cyclone Ditwah, which delivered more than 200 mm of rainfall within 24 hours across upstream catchment areas. This intense rainfall caused a rapid rise in river discharge, leading to widespread inundation throughout the Kelani River valley. Low-lying floodplain areas were particularly affected, with significant flooding reported in downstream urban regions. The floodwaters extended beyond the riverbanks, impacting residential areas, agricultural lands, and transportation corridors. The total flood extent was approximately 12,318.83 hectares , clearly illustrating the basin’s high susceptibility to extreme rainfall-driven flooding.
Assessment of assets and infrastructure located within the flood-prone areas, including buildings, roads, and land use patterns.
The Kelani flood exposure story map shows that impacts cut across both Gampaha District and Colombo District, covering more than 10 Divisional Secretariat Divisions (DSDs) and well over 200 Grama Niladhari Divisions (GNDs), from urban centers like Kolonnawa, Kaduwela, Homagama , and Colombo city to rural floodplain areas such as Dompe, Seethawaka, and Biyagama; this scale of exposure highlights how floods threaten diverse communities and infrastructures simultaneously, making it not just a local hazard but a multi-district governance challenge where cultural, economic, and residential zones all lie within vulnerable administrative boundaries.
The flood exposure analysis shows that a wide range of building types are at risk, with over 53,000 structures listed as unspecified or under construction likely representing a large share of residential homes alongside Buddhist temples, commercial buildings, factories, schools, and smaller but critical numbers of hospitals, dispensaries, police stations, and government offices.
This mix highlights how floods threaten not only cultural heritage and religious sites but also economic hubs, essential services, and community infrastructure.
The story map emphasizes both the human displacement hidden in the "unspecified" category and the disruption to livelihoods, education, healthcare, and cultural identity, showing that flood impacts cut across social, economic, and cultural dimensions all at once.
The Colombo Outer Circular Expressway runs largely on bridges and elevated structures, which means the main carriageway itself is not directly exposed to flooding. This elevated design provides resilience and ensures uninterrupted connectivity across the Kelani basin even during high water levels.
However, the critical vulnerability lies at the Athurugiriya entrance and the Kaduwela entrance, both of which are flood‑prone locations. When these nodes are inundated, access to the expressway is severely restricted, cutting off entry and exit points despite the elevated road remaining dry.
Secondary and minor roads dominate the dataset, with 473 segments totaling more than 101 km, while jeep/cart tracks extend over 500 km, forming the backbone of local mobility. Footpaths also stand out, with 294 segments covering 29 km, reflecting heavy pedestrian reliance in flood‑prone communities. These figures highlight that while expressways and main roads are vital for regional transport, the majority of exposure lies in community‑level routes that sustain daily access to services and evacuation points.
The land use impact assessment reveals that the region is dominated by three major categories: Built-up area, Homesteads/Gardens, and Cultivation area, with each playing a critical role in both human settlement and agricultural productivity. The Built-up area covers approximately 4,831 ha, indicating dense urban development, infrastructure, and public facilities. Within this, the subcategory of Homesteads /Gardens alone accounts for 4,706 ha, which is a clear indicator that a large portion of the population resides in these zones. These areas are highly sensitive to flood impacts, as they represent concentrated human habitation, property, and essential services. Flooding here would directly affect thousands of residents, disrupt daily life, and pose serious challenges to emergency response and recovery.
The second major focus is the Cultivation area, which spans over 5,296 ha and includes a variety of agricultural land uses. Among these, Paddy fields are the most significant, covering approximately 2,749 ha, with an additional 398 ha of abandoned paddy. Paddy cultivation is not only vital for local food security but also represents a traditional livelihood for many rural communities. Flooding in these areas can lead to crop loss, soil degradation, and long-term economic hardship for farming families. The presence of rubber, coconut, and mixed perennial crops further emphasizes the agricultural richness of the region, but paddy remains the most flood-sensitive and socially impactful land use.
In summary, the flood impact on land use must prioritize protection and resilience planning for Built-up areas and Homesteads/Gardens due to their high population density, and for Paddy lands due to their agricultural importance and vulnerability. These zones are the backbone of both urban life and rural livelihoods, and their exposure to flooding represents a dual threat to human well-being and food production. Effective mitigation strategies should focus on safeguarding these critical land use types to ensure sustainable recovery and long-term resilience.
Analysis of building exposure including residential, commercial, and industrial structures within flood zones.
Assessment of road segments, bridges, and critical transportation infrastructure affected by flooding.
Impact on various land use categories including agricultural land, urban areas, and natural vegetation.
The 2-kilometer buffer zone around the Kelani River represents the area of highest flood risk within the basin. This vulnerability assessment integrates four critical factors: elevation, distance from the river, population density, and building density.
The analysis reveals that communities within this narrow corridor face compounded risks due to low-lying terrain, high population concentrations, and dense urban development. Areas classified as "Very High" and "High" vulnerability require immediate attention for flood mitigation measures, evacuation planning, and resilient infrastructure development.
Understanding spatial patterns of vulnerability enables targeted allocation of resources and prioritization of areas most in need of protection and preparedness interventions.
Low-lying terrain increases flood susceptibility and water retention
Areas closer to the river face higher flood risk and faster inundation
Higher population concentrations amplify potential human impact
Dense urban development increases infrastructure exposure and economic loss
Vulnerability classification based on multi-criteria analysis of the 2km buffer zone along Kelani River
Synthesis of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability analyses to determine the comprehensive impact of Cyclone Ditwah flooding on the Kelani River Basin.